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The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias can only be realized once a resistance breakout occurs.
While this article will focus on the falling wedge as a reversal pattern, it can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.
For a pattern to be considered a falling wedge, the following characteristics must be met.
Like rising wedges, the falling wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. When lower highs and lower lows form, as in a falling wedge, the security is trending lower. The falling wedge indicates a decrease in downside momentum and alerts investors and traders to a potential trend reversal. Even though selling pressure may diminish, demand wins out only when resistance is broken. As with most patterns, it's important to wait for a breakout and combine other aspects of technical analysis to confirm signals.
FCX provides a textbook example of a falling wedge at the end of a long downtrend.
The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that suggests potential upward price movement. This pattern, while sloping downward, signals a likely trend reversal or continuation, marking a potential inflection point in trading strategies. Falling wedges can develop over several months, culminating in a bullish breakout when prices convincingly exceed the upper resistance line, ideally with a strong increase in trading volume.
The Falling Wedge can be a valuable tool in your trading arsenal, offering valuable insights into potential bullish reversals or continuations. Because of its nuances and complexity, however, it's important for you to have a good understanding of this pattern in order to effectively leverage it in a live trading environment.
The Falling Wedge can signify both a reversal and a continuation pattern. In the context of a reversal pattern, it suggests an upcoming reversal of a preceding downtrend, marking the final low. As a continuation pattern, it slopes down against the prevailing uptrend, implying that the uptrend will continue after a brief period of consolidation or pullback.
The bullish confirmation of a Falling Wedge pattern is realized when the resistance line is convincingly broken, often accompanied by increased trading volume. It's usually prudent to wait for a break above the previous reaction high for further confirmation. Following a resistance break, a correction to test the newfound support level can sometimes occur.
Volume is an essential ingredient in confirming a Falling Wedge breakout because it demonstrates market conviction behind the price movement. Without volume expansion, the breakout may lack conviction and be susceptible to failure.
Trading a Falling Wedge pattern accurately can be challenging. It involves recognizing lower highs and lower lows while a security is in a downtrend. The aim is to identify a slowdown in the rate at which prices drop, suggesting a potential shift in trend direction. It's also critical to wait for prices to break through the upper resistance line of the pattern and to validate this bullish signal with other technical analysis tools before deciding to buy.
To qualify as a reversal pattern, a Falling Wedge should ideally form after an extended downtrend that's at least three months old. The Falling Wedge pattern itself can form over a three to six-month period.