Martin Pring's Special K

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technical_indicators:pring_s_special_k [2019/06/24 19:39]
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technical_indicators:pring_s_special_k [2020/09/22 20:54] (current)
betseyp [Identifying Pro-Trend Short-Term Buy and Sell Signals]
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 ===== Identifying Pro-Trend Short-Term Buy and Sell Signals ===== ===== Identifying Pro-Trend Short-Term Buy and Sell Signals =====
  
-One of the most important things for short-term traders to grasp is the fact that trades executed in the direction of the main trend are much more likely to be successful than those generated in a counter-cyclical way. An objective method of determining the direction of the primary trend is to use the Special K. Obviously, we can tell with the benefit of hindsight where the actual Special K peaks and troughs formed but, in real time, we do not have this luxury. One solution is to determine its position relative to its 100-day MA. Positive readings (i.e. above the MA) would indicate a primary bull market and vice versa.+One of the most important things for short-term traders to grasp is the fact that trades executed in the direction of the main trend are much more likely to be successful than those generated in a counter-cyclical way. An objective method of determining the direction of the primary trend is to use the Special K. Obviously, we can tell with the benefit of hindsight where the actual Special K peaks and troughs formed but, in real time, we do not have this luxury. One solution is to determine its position relative to its 10-day MA. Positive readings (i.e. above the MA) would indicate a primary bull market and vice versa.
  
-When the direction of the primary trend has been determined to be bullish, trades from the long side would be initiated when the Special K itself crosses above its 10-day MA. These are shown with orange, upward arrows on the chart below. Trades would that being when the Special K is below its long-term MA and crosses below its 10-day MA. The chart below shows such a system for the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index. The green vertical line represents the start of a bull market phase as defined by the Special K/100-day MA relationship.+When the direction of the primary trend has been determined to be bullish, trades from the long side would be initiated when the Special K itself crosses above its 10-day MA. These are shown with orange, upward arrows on the chart below. Trades would that being when the Special K is below its long-term MA and crosses below its 10-day MA. The chart below shows such a system for the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index. The green vertical line represents the start of a bull market phase as defined by the Special K/10-day MA relationship.
  
 {{:​technical_indicators:​pring_s_special_k:​psk6.png|Figure 6}}\\ {{:​technical_indicators:​pring_s_special_k:​psk6.png|Figure 6}}\\
 [[https://​stockcharts.com/​h-sc/​ui?​s=DJP&​p=D&​st=2008-02-14&​en=2010-07-24&​id=p13988319489&​a=351486397|Click here for a live version of the chart.]] [[https://​stockcharts.com/​h-sc/​ui?​s=DJP&​p=D&​st=2008-02-14&​en=2010-07-24&​id=p13988319489&​a=351486397|Click here for a live version of the chart.]]
  
-Note that no buy signals are generated during the bearish periods, only sell signals (brown, downward arrows). The "​Example Sell Point" was subpar because it developed during a bull market, but, unfortunately,​ the system was still in a bearish mode because the Special K was below its 100-day MA. This illustrates how this approach is far from perfect. As with all technical indicators, rather than blindly using this approach as a mechanical system, it's better to use pro trend signals as an alert and then use other indicators as a filter in a "​weight of the evidence"​ approach.+Note that no buy signals are generated during the bearish periods, only sell signals (brown, downward arrows). The "​Example Sell Point" was subpar because it developed during a bull market, but, unfortunately,​ the system was still in a bearish mode because the Special K was below its 10-day MA. This illustrates how this approach is far from perfect. As with all technical indicators, rather than blindly using this approach as a mechanical system, it's better to use pro trend signals as an alert and then use other indicators as a filter in a "​weight of the evidence"​ approach.
  
 - Martin Pring - Martin Pring
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-For more details on the syntax to use for Special K scans, please see our [[docs>scans:​indicators#​pring_s_special_k|Scan Syntax Reference]] in the Support Center.+For more details on the syntax to use for Special K scans, please see our [[https://​support.stockcharts.com/​doku.php?​id=scans:​indicators#​pring_s_special_k|Scan Syntax Reference]] in the Support Center.